Here is a great article from the Washington Post. John McCain still has a chance, but the time to act is now.
By Dan Balz
NASHVILLE -- It was a late night for John McCain's campaign -- a post-debate repast of karaoke until the wee hours of the rain-soaked morning. They sang neither in celebration nor to drown their sorrows. Tuesday's debate did not fundamentally alter the race.
Instant polls judged Barack Obama the winner. The post-debate chatter on the cable channels tended to favor Obama. Even reliably conservative voices on CNN -- Alex Castellanos, Leslie Sanchez and William Bennett -- found it hard to award the evening to McCain. When the polls are heading in one direction, conventional wisdom follows.
Which is why McCain needs the numbers to move, even a bit, the other way. He's like the stock markets. Lack of confidence breeds retreat. He needs an injection of fresh political confidence in his presidential candidacy.
Mark Salter, the candidate's alter ego and confidant, was in the lobby of McCain's hotel Wednesday, neither grim nor giddy but still shaking out cobwebs. "We've been dead before," he said.
He would know, having weathered McCain's long, wild ride through the primaries and now the general election. But is there a plan? "We can't die again," he said.
By Dan Balz
NASHVILLE -- It was a late night for John McCain's campaign -- a post-debate repast of karaoke until the wee hours of the rain-soaked morning. They sang neither in celebration nor to drown their sorrows. Tuesday's debate did not fundamentally alter the race.
Instant polls judged Barack Obama the winner. The post-debate chatter on the cable channels tended to favor Obama. Even reliably conservative voices on CNN -- Alex Castellanos, Leslie Sanchez and William Bennett -- found it hard to award the evening to McCain. When the polls are heading in one direction, conventional wisdom follows.
Which is why McCain needs the numbers to move, even a bit, the other way. He's like the stock markets. Lack of confidence breeds retreat. He needs an injection of fresh political confidence in his presidential candidacy.
Mark Salter, the candidate's alter ego and confidant, was in the lobby of McCain's hotel Wednesday, neither grim nor giddy but still shaking out cobwebs. "We've been dead before," he said.
He would know, having weathered McCain's long, wild ride through the primaries and now the general election. But is there a plan? "We can't die again," he said.
Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke couldn't have said it better. Try something and see if it works. If that isn't sufficient, try more. McCain's answer in the debate was a $300 plan to stabilize the housing market by buying up and renegotiating bad mortgages.
The overnight focus groups conducted by McCain's campaign offered a little comfort, particularly compared with those by news organizations. The voters assembled by the campaign, said one senior official, did not see an Obama victory. Nor did they apparently see a McCain triumph, he said. These voters thought both candidates did well and now it's on to the next round.
Mike DuHaime, McCain political director, said internal campaign polling does not make the electoral map look as bad as some public polls suggest. For example: Asked why, if he had given up on Michigan, McCain had not given up on Iowa, a state that looks strong for Obama in public polls, DuHamie said because their own polling has Obama's lead in low single digits.
The overnight focus groups conducted by McCain's campaign offered a little comfort, particularly compared with those by news organizations. The voters assembled by the campaign, said one senior official, did not see an Obama victory. Nor did they apparently see a McCain triumph, he said. These voters thought both candidates did well and now it's on to the next round.
Mike DuHaime, McCain political director, said internal campaign polling does not make the electoral map look as bad as some public polls suggest. For example: Asked why, if he had given up on Michigan, McCain had not given up on Iowa, a state that looks strong for Obama in public polls, DuHamie said because their own polling has Obama's lead in low single digits.
He said the upper Midwest battlegrounds -- Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota -- seem to be moving as a block. They looked bad before the Republican convention, but as of now, he believes there's no reason for McCain to give up on them. The Democrats believe otherwise. They see all three states firming up, although Wisconsin remains the most competitive.
Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, told reporters after the debate that he still likes his candidate's situation. Better, he said, to be defending red states than having to convert blue states to win. He has lots of them to defend right now -- Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico and North Carolina.
DuHaime also said there is positive evidence that McCain is catching up to Obama in the battle to mobilize voters. The past two weeks, he said, McCain's campaign has contacted more voters, by phone or door-to-door, than the vaunted Bush machine did in comparable weeks four years ago. One week, he said, the increase was 40 percent over last year.
Part of that is the Palin effect. The selection of Sarah Palin brought a surge of new volunteers into the McCain campaign. Once processed into the system, they are now helping to expand the reach of McCain's phone banks and street-level canvassing.
They are helping to produce mountains of data -- the results of every call are entered into a database overnight for officials at the Republican National Committee and the McCain campaign to parse. When combined with other data, the McCain team can see how their candidate is improving or slipping among different categories of voters, sliced every which way through microtargeting analysis.
What to do? Scott Reed, who ran Bob Dole's campaign 12 years ago and knows what happens when a candidate falls behind, said McCain should offer a more comprehensive economic plan that deals with the current crisis -- and "stay focused on Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin." Florida, he added, "is a must win."
Tad Devine, who was at the center of the past two losing Democratic campaigns, argued that McCain now is in worse shape than either Al Gore or John F. Kerry at this time in their campaigns.
Devine offered a clinical strategy that he said is McCain's best hope: forget the Kerry states (including New Hampshire), as well as Iowa and New Mexico and put everything into Ohio and Florida.
"To do that, he must attack Obama, with ads that work in those places, down to the individual markets," he wrote in a message. "So in the panhandle in Florida, they should attack on culture/values. In the middle of the state, on taxes. In the south (not Miami -- too expensive) on economy, that Obama will hurt small business. This should be a market by market strategy, not a national strategy. Same in Ohio. He needs to get those two back, and the only way to do it is with negative ads in base markets, and economic ads in swing markets."
John Weaver, who once was McCain's chief strategist, said McCain needs global movement. "There are too many problematic states for the campaign to try to play prevent defense in any one, which doesn't usually work even when you're ahead," he wrote. "The campaign must close the gap dramatically and quickly on dealing with the economy in a way that connects with and gives hope to a broad range of Americans -- and not just focus on Obama's deficiencies. This is the only way -- in a big election -- to close the polling gap and change the narrative. These coming days are the last opportunity Senator McCain has to show the American people the inspirational, empathetic leader we know him to be."
Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, told reporters after the debate that he still likes his candidate's situation. Better, he said, to be defending red states than having to convert blue states to win. He has lots of them to defend right now -- Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico and North Carolina.
DuHaime also said there is positive evidence that McCain is catching up to Obama in the battle to mobilize voters. The past two weeks, he said, McCain's campaign has contacted more voters, by phone or door-to-door, than the vaunted Bush machine did in comparable weeks four years ago. One week, he said, the increase was 40 percent over last year.
Part of that is the Palin effect. The selection of Sarah Palin brought a surge of new volunteers into the McCain campaign. Once processed into the system, they are now helping to expand the reach of McCain's phone banks and street-level canvassing.
They are helping to produce mountains of data -- the results of every call are entered into a database overnight for officials at the Republican National Committee and the McCain campaign to parse. When combined with other data, the McCain team can see how their candidate is improving or slipping among different categories of voters, sliced every which way through microtargeting analysis.
What to do? Scott Reed, who ran Bob Dole's campaign 12 years ago and knows what happens when a candidate falls behind, said McCain should offer a more comprehensive economic plan that deals with the current crisis -- and "stay focused on Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin." Florida, he added, "is a must win."
Tad Devine, who was at the center of the past two losing Democratic campaigns, argued that McCain now is in worse shape than either Al Gore or John F. Kerry at this time in their campaigns.
Devine offered a clinical strategy that he said is McCain's best hope: forget the Kerry states (including New Hampshire), as well as Iowa and New Mexico and put everything into Ohio and Florida.
"To do that, he must attack Obama, with ads that work in those places, down to the individual markets," he wrote in a message. "So in the panhandle in Florida, they should attack on culture/values. In the middle of the state, on taxes. In the south (not Miami -- too expensive) on economy, that Obama will hurt small business. This should be a market by market strategy, not a national strategy. Same in Ohio. He needs to get those two back, and the only way to do it is with negative ads in base markets, and economic ads in swing markets."
John Weaver, who once was McCain's chief strategist, said McCain needs global movement. "There are too many problematic states for the campaign to try to play prevent defense in any one, which doesn't usually work even when you're ahead," he wrote. "The campaign must close the gap dramatically and quickly on dealing with the economy in a way that connects with and gives hope to a broad range of Americans -- and not just focus on Obama's deficiencies. This is the only way -- in a big election -- to close the polling gap and change the narrative. These coming days are the last opportunity Senator McCain has to show the American people the inspirational, empathetic leader we know him to be."
Tuesday's debate did not really answer the question many Americans are asking. Are either of these candidates truly up to tackling the problems the next president will inherit?
Both have struggled with economic issues throughout their campaigns and it showed again Tuesday night. For the second consecutive debate, neither fully stepped up to the moment of a country in an economic crisis, with voters deeply anxious about their jobs, mortgages, retirement savings and health care.
Neither found a way to explain where we are as cogently and clearly as the next president will be asked to do. Both played the blame game over who was more complicit in allowing the problems to develop; both talked about ways to prevent the next crisis when resolving the current crisis is the nation's real priority.
Obama was calm at a time when calm is valuable. But he was focused on winning the debate and the election. That's smart politics but in a month he could be the president-elect, and then the whole mess will be on his shoulders. Does he have the passion and the sense of urgency to restore confidence as Franklin D. Roosevelt did when he assumed the presidency in 1933?
McCain was better in this debate than the first -- more engaged with his rival and engaged with those asking the questions. He offered his mortgage plan to show he gets the problems people are feeling, but he did so in a way that left lots of questions. He didn't drive the biggest new piece of his message. And, while he insisted he knows how to solve the problems facing the economy, he provided no evidence.
But where Obama has used the first two debates effectively is to persuade voters that he is as capable as McCain when it comes to taking over the presidency.
McCain's strategy is grounded in the need to disqualify his opponent. Without that, the underlying structure of the race favors the Democrat. But after two debates, in head-to-head competition, Obama has not come off as the callow youth to McCain's steady hand. Even a draw hurts McCain.
McCain made a good case for himself and was about as pointed as a candidate can be in a town hall setting in taking on his opponent. But nothing in the first two debates has contributed to disqualifying Obama -- and certainly the public reaction confirms that.
The final debate on Oct. 15 could be the best of the three -- just the two candidates at a table with CBS's Bob Schieffer as moderator. The topic will be all domestic issues and it will be an opportunity to bore in on both candidates in ways the first two debates have not allowed.
In the meantime, McCain will need to gather fresh momentum, somehow. But the narrative has turned sharply against him and his every move is questioned. If he gets tough, it's described as desperation. If he deals only with the economy, it plays to the Democrats' natural advantage. And he'll need a sterling performance in the final debate.
But inside the McCain campaign there is resolve, which comes from the candidate himself. Whatever difficult days lie ahead, they believe they have seen worse. McCain put it best in his closing statement Tuesday:
"I know what it's like in dark times," he said. "I know what it's like to have to fight to keep one's hope going through difficult times. I know what it's like to rely on others for support and courage and love in tough times. I know what it's like to have your comrades reach out to you and your neighbors and your fellow citizens and pick you up and put you back in the fight."
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/10/08/mccain_looks_to_rise_again.html
Both have struggled with economic issues throughout their campaigns and it showed again Tuesday night. For the second consecutive debate, neither fully stepped up to the moment of a country in an economic crisis, with voters deeply anxious about their jobs, mortgages, retirement savings and health care.
Neither found a way to explain where we are as cogently and clearly as the next president will be asked to do. Both played the blame game over who was more complicit in allowing the problems to develop; both talked about ways to prevent the next crisis when resolving the current crisis is the nation's real priority.
Obama was calm at a time when calm is valuable. But he was focused on winning the debate and the election. That's smart politics but in a month he could be the president-elect, and then the whole mess will be on his shoulders. Does he have the passion and the sense of urgency to restore confidence as Franklin D. Roosevelt did when he assumed the presidency in 1933?
McCain was better in this debate than the first -- more engaged with his rival and engaged with those asking the questions. He offered his mortgage plan to show he gets the problems people are feeling, but he did so in a way that left lots of questions. He didn't drive the biggest new piece of his message. And, while he insisted he knows how to solve the problems facing the economy, he provided no evidence.
But where Obama has used the first two debates effectively is to persuade voters that he is as capable as McCain when it comes to taking over the presidency.
McCain's strategy is grounded in the need to disqualify his opponent. Without that, the underlying structure of the race favors the Democrat. But after two debates, in head-to-head competition, Obama has not come off as the callow youth to McCain's steady hand. Even a draw hurts McCain.
McCain made a good case for himself and was about as pointed as a candidate can be in a town hall setting in taking on his opponent. But nothing in the first two debates has contributed to disqualifying Obama -- and certainly the public reaction confirms that.
The final debate on Oct. 15 could be the best of the three -- just the two candidates at a table with CBS's Bob Schieffer as moderator. The topic will be all domestic issues and it will be an opportunity to bore in on both candidates in ways the first two debates have not allowed.
In the meantime, McCain will need to gather fresh momentum, somehow. But the narrative has turned sharply against him and his every move is questioned. If he gets tough, it's described as desperation. If he deals only with the economy, it plays to the Democrats' natural advantage. And he'll need a sterling performance in the final debate.
But inside the McCain campaign there is resolve, which comes from the candidate himself. Whatever difficult days lie ahead, they believe they have seen worse. McCain put it best in his closing statement Tuesday:
"I know what it's like in dark times," he said. "I know what it's like to have to fight to keep one's hope going through difficult times. I know what it's like to rely on others for support and courage and love in tough times. I know what it's like to have your comrades reach out to you and your neighbors and your fellow citizens and pick you up and put you back in the fight."
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/10/08/mccain_looks_to_rise_again.html
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